The Future Times

Aim: to think about what might happen in the future.

Age group: any.

Number of participants: 6-10.

Time required: 30 minutes.

Resources needed: information about future levels of gases, consumption, populations, technologies that are coming in; paper and pens; scissors; glue.

What to do:

Create a newspaper entitled ‘The Future Times’ set in 2050. It will probably be in your lifetime, but what will life be like?

Decide whether you are going to do a ‘probable’ future scenario (the most realistic), a ‘possible’ future (achievable but may not be looking very likely).

You can have interviews, points of view columns, lots of news stories, features, photographs and cartoons, don’t forget eye catching headlines. What will the situation of fossil fuels and energy be, do you think? What do you think will have happened to poverty? Will any of the Millennium Development Goals still have to be met?

You can read as much or as little as you want from the ‘Future Times Background information’ handout. This contains information from some newspapers and articles. It is not a scientific ‘fact sheet’ – there are still different opinions about some aspects of the potential future of the environment.

Variations:

Create an edition set in the more distant future. In 2500, for example.

You could do two versions, one the ‘worst case’ scenario and one the ‘best case scenario’.

Background information for ‘Future Times’

1. The Environment

(A personal blog from the Internet)

This is the biggest issue facing our planet. In our current age of nation-states and essentially uncontrolled multi-national corporations, the environment is suffering from the well known "tragedy of the commons". Simply speaking, everyone has an incentive to exploit the "free" resources represented by the commons, and no one has any incentive to protect it. Without ownership, there is no lawful way to protect the air and sea. Without legal authority, there is no way to create a rational market for the air and sea.

Capitalism exploits any imbalance between real costs and monetary costs. In fact, that is the key to success - find something that you can sell for more than it costs to produce. When production costs are "free", it is a lot easier to make a successful sale. Hence we see the giant factory fishing ships that have lead to the destruction of commercial fish species. Hence we have seen the pollution of the Earth's atmosphere because there are no "costs" to such pollution. The result is "acid rain", the gradual destruction of the ozone layer, and terrible air pollution over many of the cities in the world.

2. “Earth will expire by 2050”

(An article in a UK newspaper, 2002)

Our planet is running out of room and resources, a damning report claims this week.

A study by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), to be released on Tuesday, warns that the human race is plundering the planet at a pace that outstrips its capacity to support life. In a damning condemnation of Western society's high consumption levels, it adds that the extra planets (the equivalent size of Earth) will be required by the year 2050 as existing resources are exhausted.

The report, based on scientific data from across the world, reveals that more than a third of the natural world has been destroyed by humans over the past three decades. Using the image of the need for mankind to colonise space as a stark illustration of the problems facing Earth, the report warns that either consumption rates are dramatically and rapidly lowered or the planet will no longer be able to sustain its growing population.

Experts say that seas will become emptied of fish while forests - which absorb carbon dioxide emissions - are completely destroyed and freshwater supplies become scarce and polluted.

The report offers a vivid warning that either people curb their extravagant lifestyles or risk leaving the onus on scientists to locate another planet that can sustain human life. Since this is unlikely to happen, the only option is to cut consumption now.

Systematic overexploitation of the planet's oceans has meant the North Atlantic's cod stocks have collapsed. The study will also reveal a sharp fall in the planet's ecosystems between 1970 and 2002 with the Earth's forest cover shrinking by about 12 per cent, the ocean's biodiversity by a third and freshwater ecosystems in the region of 55 per cent.

The Living Planet report uses an index to illustrate the shocking level of deterioration in the world's forests as well as marine and freshwater ecosystems. Using 1970 as a baseline year and giving it a value of 100, the index has dropped to a new low of around 65 in the space of a single generation.

It is not just humans who are at risk. Scientists, who examined data for 350 kinds of mammals, birds, reptiles and fish, also found the numbers of many species have more than halved.

Martin Jenkins, senior adviser for the World Conservation Monitoring Centre in Cambridge, which helped compile the report, said: 'It seems things are getting worse faster than possibly ever before. Never has one single species had such an overwhelming influence. We are entering uncharted territory.'

Figures from the centre reveal that black rhino numbers have fallen from 65,000 in 1970 to around 3,100 now, while the population of tigers has fallen by 95 per cent during the past century. Experts, however, say it is difficult to ascertain how many species have vanished for ever because a species has to disappear for 50 years before it can be declared extinct.

The WWF report shames the US for placing the greatest pressure on the environment. It found the average US resident consumes almost double the resources as that of a UK citizen and more than 24 times that of some Africans.

Based on factors such as a nation's consumption of grain, fish, wood and fresh water along with its emissions of carbon dioxide from industry and cars, the report provides an ecological 'footprint' for each country by showing how much land is required to support each resident.

America's consumption 'footprint' is 12.2 hectares per head of population compared to the UK's 6.29ha while Western Europe as a whole stands at 6.28ha. In Ethiopia the figure is 2ha, falling to just half a hectare for Burundi, the country that consumes least resources.

The report, which will be unveiled in Geneva, warns that the wasteful lifestyles of the rich nations are mainly responsible for the exploitation and depletion of natural wealth. Human consumption has doubled over the last 30 years and continues to accelerate by 1.5 per cent a year.

Now WWF wants world leaders to use its findings to agree on specific actions to curb the population's impact on the planet.

A spokesman for WWF UK, said: 'If all the people consumed natural resources at the same rate as the average US and UK citizen we would require at least two extra planets like Earth.'

The world's ticking time bomb in summary:

Marine crisis:

North Atlantic cod stocks have collapsed from an estimated 264,000 tonnes in 1970 to fewer than 60,000 in 1995.

Pollution:

The United States places the greatest pressure on the environment, with its carbon dioxide emissions and over-consumption. It takes 12.2 hectares of land to support each American citizen and 6.29 for each Briton, while the figure for Burundi is just half a hectare.

Shrinking Forests:

Between 1970 and 2002 forest cover has dwindled by 12 per cent.

Endangered wildlife:

African elephant numbers have fallen from 1.2 million in 1980 to half a million now. In the UK the songbird population has fallen dramatically, with the corn bunting declining by 92 per cent in the past 30 years.

3. Summary of some important environmental issues

(Friends of the Earth)

Kyoto Protocol

The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement on fighting climate change. It became law on Feb 16th 2005. Most scientists agree that the Kyoto Protocol isn't the complete answer. But it is a good start.

How does the Kyoto Protocol work? Scientists believe we have to cut the amounts of carbon dioxide (C02) being released from now on. The Kyoto Protocol sets targets for the maximum amount of C02 pollution rich countries can produce.

The world's biggest polluter - the United States - hasn't signed the agreement.

Climate change

Floods in Mozambique. Forest fires in Indonesia. Hurricanes in Florida. Storms in the UK. Extreme weather events are predicted to become more frequent because of climate change. What causes climate change? Climate change or global warming is caused by increased levels of carbon dioxide (C02) and other polluting gases in our atmosphere. Greenhouse gases are released by burning fossil fuels - coal, oil and gas - and by cutting down forests.

The gases trap heat by forming a blanket around the Earth - like the glass of a greenhouse. Once released the greenhouse gases stay in the atmosphere for many years. As they build up, the planet's temperature rises.

Renewable energy

Examples of renewable energy sources include: solar, wind, hydroelectric and

biomass (natural materials, like wood, are burnt or turned into gas to provide energy).

They are clean (and won't cause climate change), safe (unlike nuclear power) and won't run out (unlike oil, gas and coal) and there's a vast resource that's largely untapped.

Did you know? The UK has, in the form of wind power, the largest renewable energy resource in Europe. What's more, the more renewable energy we use the cheaper it will become.

Corporates

The balance of power has shifted. Governments are losing control to huge multinational corporations. This process is putting basic human rights and vast areas of the natural world in serious danger. It's time to challenge the rise of corporate power.

Biodiversity

We are losing the range and variety of life on Earth - biodiversity. We depend on biodiversity for food and materials, clean water and air. But our natural world is disappearing at an alarming rate. The world's richest companies take more than their fair share - and governments don't do enough to protect our world.

Biodiversity is under threat worldwide for many different and complex reasons. Forests are being cut down for paper and cleared for cattle ranching or palm oil. Oil spills, sewage, industrial chemicals and heavy metals pollute the oceans. Fish stocks are being exhausted by indiscriminate industrial fishing. Big companies are ignoring wildlife protection laws and environmental standards.

Fighting for forests

Rainforests are home to a vast amount of biodiversity, including endangered species such as Orang-utans, Sumatran tigers and Scarlet macaws

Did you know? A single acre of rainforest can contain as many different plant species as the entire UK - some 1,500 species. More than two million hectares of Indonesian rainforest vanish every year, much of it linked to the spread of plantations producing palm oil.

The degradation of forests is harming many of the world's poorest people, and is sometimes the principal cause of poverty.

Friends of the Earth says: “New laws are needed to rebalance global trade in favour of local communities and the environment.”